The relentless and longevity grip of last year’s El Niño has taken a negative toll on grain production in many areas of southern Africa region.
According to Famine Early Warning Systems Network’s (FEWS NET) Southern Africa Seasonal Monitor-January 2025 report, atypically high and escalating staple food prices are expected to continue constraining food access for poor households through the next harvests across the region in 2025.
In fact, long-range forecasts are clouded by uncertainty this summer due to late rains something that may cause crops failures at a time when bountiful harvests are desperately needed following poor results in 2024.
“From October to early January, rainfall patterns have been highly uneven, with significant deficits observed in Madagascar, northern and southern Mozambique, Malawi, western South Africa, southern Tanzania, and parts of Zambia,” sated the report in part.
It added that rainfall onset was delayed by over 30 days in areas such as eastern Madagascar, southern Mozambique, and southern Zambia. December’s dry spells and high temperatures placed crops under stress, leading to crop wilting and replanting efforts in regions like Malawi.
Rainfall across the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region has shown mixed patterns. Parts of the Democratic Republic of Congo, Angola, Lesotho, central South Africa, Zambia, and northern Zimbabwe received slightly below-average rainfall during the first three months of the wet season.
Conversely, areas like Botswana, western Angola, northern Namibia, northern Tanzania, northern South Africa, and southern Zimbabwe experienced above-average rainfall.
The 2024–25 agricultural season faces challenges in regions like eastern Madagascar, southern Mozambique, and southern Zambia, where delayed planting, poor germination, and low soil moisture have already affected production.
“Regions with above-average rainfall so far are better positioned for good harvests of rain-fed crops, assuming consistent rainfall continues,” noted the report.
Long-range forecasts predict above-normal rainfall for much of the southern half of the region through March. However, this optimism is tempered by concerns that for some areas, the rain may come too late, while excessive rainfall could also damage crops like grain.
La Niña weather pattern
The La Niña weather pattern, which typically brings good rains to southern Africa, formed later than expected in December, despite being initially forecast for July. This delay limited its impact, and it is predicted to weaken and dissipate by April.
Exacerbating these challenges is climate change, driven by fossil fuel emissions, with 2024 recorded as the hottest year in history, intensifying unpredictable weather patterns and affecting agricultural cycles.
This crisis is unfolding amidst a regional food insecurity crisis, with around 30 million people already facing severe shortages. Last year’s intense El Niño event exacerbated the situation, slashing Zimbabwe’s maize production by over 60% and leaving communities vulnerable to hunger and malnutrition.
Zambia’s agricultural sector was severely impacted, with its maize harvest slashed by 50%, while South Africa saw a 23% reduction in production compared to the prior season. Similar struggles were faced by Malawi, Lesotho, and Mozambique. Most maize farming north of the Limpopo River is small-scale and rain-fed, leaving it particularly vulnerable to erratic weather patterns.
Livestock productivity has also declined in Namibia, Botswana, and western South Africa due to poor grazing and water shortages, impacting meat and milk availability and posing food security risks in the region.
Pest infestations
In Malawi, pest infestations such as fall armyworm threaten staple crops like maize and sorghum. Adding to these challenges, crop-raiding elephants have created ongoing conflicts with farmers in areas near Kasungu National Park following a poorly executed translocation effort.
Economic repercussions have rippled across the region. Malawi experienced inflation rising to 28.1% in December 2024, coupled with slowing economic growth. South Africa’s economy contracted by 0.3% in the third quarter due to a significant drop in agricultural output. Meanwhile, domestic maize price fluctuations threaten to reignite food inflation despite earlier slowdowns.
South Africa’s maize crop outlook is slightly more optimistic this season, but much depends on weather conditions, with further clarity expected from the Crop Estimates Committee’s report later this month.
