South Africa’s agriculture sector is ending 2025 on a strong note, signalling optimism for the year ahead.
After a tough 2024, which saw an 8.7% year-on-year (y/y) GDP contraction, the latest data shows a clear rebound driven by growth in GDP, exports, machinery sales, and confidence levels.
Confidence on the rise
The Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI) climbed 5 points to 67 in Q4 2025—17 points above the neutral level of 50. This matches the trend in the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI), which rose 5 points to 44 after two quarters of decline, now 3 points above its long-term average.
Eight of the ten ACI sub-indices improved, with the capital investment sub-index jumping 7 points to 74. This signals strong investment appetite, supported by a favourable interest rate outlook following November’s 25-basis-point cut and expectations of further cuts in 2026.
GDP and sector performance
Agriculture GDP growth was impressive across the first three quarters of 2025:
- Q1: +18.6% quarter-on-quarter (q/q), seasonally adjusted
- Q2: +2.5% q/q
- Q3: +1.1% q/q
Year-on-year, the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sector surged by 49.9%, driven by field crops, horticulture, and animal products. However, foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) limited gains in livestock, preventing an even stronger performance.
Exports surge despite global headwinds
Despite US tariffs creating trade uncertainty, South Africa’s agricultural exports rose 10% y/y to US$11.7 billion for the first three quarters of 2025. Africa led with 34% of exports, followed by Asia and the Middle East (25%), the EU (23%), and the Americas (6%). While US-bound exports face challenges due to a 30% tariff—except for exempted products like oranges and macadamias—other markets have increased demand.
Machinery sales bounce back
After a weak 2024, machinery sales surged in 2025. Tractor sales rose 19.2% y/y and combine harvester sales 2.6% y/y, totalling 7,176 tractors and 200 harvesters—a combined 7,376 units, up 19% y/y. This reflects confidence in production and improved seasonal conditions.
Rainfall and seasonal outlook
The La Niña weather pattern has brought good rains across Southern Africa, boosting soil moisture and supporting planting. Seasonal conditions for the 2025/26 agriculture year look excellent, pointing to another strong harvest and positive GDP contribution in the medium term.
Looking ahead
With confidence indices rising, exports growing, machinery sales accelerating, and favourable rains continuing, agriculture is well-positioned for sustained growth in 2026. While disease management and global trade dynamics remain key risks, the fundamentals are strong, and the outlook is positive.
