The global macadamia industry continues its upward trajectory, with ongoing price increases marking a move towards stability in the industry. Strategic marketing efforts have paid off, increasing awareness of macadamia nuts, and positioning them as a mainstream ingredient rather than a niche product.
South Africa is the largest producer of macadamia nuts globally. The harvest got underway at the start of March and will continue until mid-winter. Global Macadamias has offered price increases of up to 37% depending on the crackout style and quality of the nuts. This consecutive price increase is much needed in an industry that has faced hardship since the economic downturn following the Covid-19 pandemic, which placed downward pressure on prices.
“Fervent marketing efforts are paying off as product manufacturers recognise the value of including macadamia nuts in their larger product lines. Interest from consumers is also increasing off the back of health research proving the value of macadamia nuts. This this brings consistency aiding in demand stability for macadamias,” said Shane Hartman, CEO of Global Macadamias.
Macadamias are sold into two primary markets: inshell and kernel. China and Vietnam remain the dominant buyers of inshell macadamias, while Western Markets, as well as Japan, Taiwan and South Korea, favour kernel. “Post-pandemic, inshell demand rebounded more quickly, but over the past year, we’ve seen kernel demand take off,” Hartman explained. “The inshell market is very elastic – when prices rise, demand quickly drops – but kernel demand has strengthened as product developers have recognised the potential of macadamias in a variety of value applications.”
There is much optimism over the kernel market going forward, since efforts to lure product developers are paying off. “The ingredients and confectionary industries are doing exciting work to develop new products that contain macadamias. It’s a big investment to bring out a new product, which means that once macadamias are in, there is long term, stable demand. With prices becoming more stable, steady demand is likely to follow suit. This is exactly what the industry needs right now, after the roller coaster prices we saw over the last decade,” said Hartman.
The optimism over macadamias in the market worldwide bodes well for the increasing volumes globally. South Africa’s national crop is estimated to increase by around 8% per year as expanded orchards come into production. Due to adverse weather, the 2025 increase is expected to be somewhat smaller, resulting in a crop of around 93 000 tonnes inshell, up 7% from the 2024 crop.
While South Africa’s outlook remains strong, external factors could impact the international market. Australia, the world’s second-largest macadamia producer, has been hit by Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred, which is expected to reduce its harvest. At the same time, shifting trade policies present uncertainties.
The impact of United States president Donald Trump’s trade war is still unknown. “The potential revocation of AGOA (African Growth and Opportunity Act) in the US could result in tariffs on South African macadamia exports,” Hartman noted. “However, since the US produces minimal volumes of macadamias, we may avoid these tariffs. Nonetheless, global trade dynamics underscore the importance of diversified, strategic marketing.”
Global Macadamias, alongside industry bodies such as SAMAC (South African Macadamias) and the World Macadamia Organisation, have played their part in securing macadamias’ position as a competitive ingredient worldwide. “We’ve ensured that macadamias are no longer seen as a niche product but as a viable alternative to other widely used nuts,” Hartman said. “This has been key in mitigating risk and stabilising demand.”
Despite the positive momentum, Hartman acknowledged that some macadamia farmers are still feeling the effects of past market downturns. “Another price increase in the coming years would be beneficial for growers, but it’s critical that macadamias remain competitively priced,” he cautioned. “No longer being considered a niche category has its pros and cons. While we can now compete with other nut categories in terms of demand, we won’t be able to realise the peak prices of 2020, where at US$6 per kilogramme inshell, macadamias were unaffordable for product developers. The industry is now in a much stronger position, but we must remain mindful of long-term sustainability.”
As the 2025 harvest season unfolds, there are positive signs contributing to a more stable environment. “Conversations with buyers indicate growing confidence in macadamias as a premium, high-quality ingredient,” Hartman concluded. “The future for macadamias is optimistic, and we remain committed to ensuring that demand continues to grow alongside supply.”
