By Jade Smith, Agricultural Economist at Absa AgriBusiness
Agriculture has never offered much certainty, so the idea of a volatile and unpredictable world is hardly new to those producers who commit considerable resources to a season without knowing what the weather or the market will deliver.
Corporate gurus have minted the term VUCA to describe a world of volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity, which will sound familiar to anyone who has spent time making decisions in an industry where even the best-laid plans are vulnerable to circumstances beyond their control. But there is another concept worth considering as the risks facing agriculture become more interconnected.
BANI describes a world that is brittle, anxious, non-linear and incomprehensible, in which systems that appear relatively stable can prove surprisingly fragile and a seemingly minor disruption can have consequences far greater than anyone anticipated. Consider what happens when a geopolitical dispute changes the cost of fertiliser just as producers are preparing for the planting season, or when an interruption to international trade affects the profitability of a crop months before it is harvested. Decisions that made good economic sense when they were taken can quickly become difficult to defend, even when the producer has done everything within their control.
Making sense of a BANI world raises an important question for South African agriculture: how should producers make decisions when even a reasonable assessment of the risks may fail to capture what happens next? Adaptability, it seems, could become one of the most valuable assets.
Being adaptable is hardly a new endeavour, though in a BANI environment it demands greater strategic agility and more informed decision-making.
Producers need to be able to interpret reliable information alongside broader market developments, consider how different scenarios might affect their businesses and preserve enough flexibility to respond when circumstances change. Even the most carefully considered forecast has its limitations, and much depends on recognising when new information warrants a change of course. The ability to make that judgement early enough to act, while there is still room to manoeuvre, could prove a competitive advantage.
According to the latest Absa AgriTrends report, the global outlook is likely to remain unusually uncertain, with developments in the Middle East continuing to influence oil prices and agricultural input costs, while weather conditions could become a more significant driver of production outcomes and food inflation as the 2026/27 summer production season unfolds.
Much of the concern expressed by Absa’s agricultural clients ahead of the coming season centres on the developing El Niño, a naturally occurring climate phenomenon associated with below-average rainfall, reduced yields and periods of rising food prices in Southern Africa. However, focusing exclusively on climate forecasts risks oversimplifying a much more complex reality, given how heavily seasonal performance depends on the conditions producers are working with and, critically, when and where rainfall occurs.
The somewhat better news is that South African agriculture enters this production cycle from a significantly stronger position than during previous drought periods. Following two consecutive seasons of favourable rainfall, soil moisture reserves are healthy across many major crop-producing regions, while national dam levels stood at approximately 95.5% in August, compared with 55% in August 2016 during one of the country’s most severe drought cycles. These conditions provide an important buffer against early-season weather risks and improve the sector’s ability to absorb climatic shocks should conditions deteriorate later in the season.
Again, adaptive decision-making will be the differentiator here.
Choices around planting windows, cultivar selection, resource allocation and risk management can all influence how effectively an agribusiness navigates a challenging season.
Producers should closely monitor rainfall forecasts and soil moisture levels ahead of the critical summer planting window from October to December, especially dryland grain farmers working with soils that have a lower capacity to retain water and are more vulnerable to prolonged dry spells. Careful water use and decisions about which inputs will contribute most to yield potential will be important, as will preserving enough financial flexibility to respond should conditions deteriorate during the season.
Perhaps that is what makes the BANI concept so relevant to agriculture.
Even the strongest starting position offers little certainty about how a season will unfold, and producers will inevitably encounter circumstances that no amount of planning could have anticipated. The real test of adaptability will be whether they have preserved enough room to make sound decisions when those circumstances arise, because the choices made during a difficult season may ultimately determine the strength of the business well beyond it.
