South Africa’s headline inflation reversed course and eased marginally from December’s 3.6% to 3.5% year‑on-year (y/y) in January 2026. Monthly pressure was just 0.2% month-on-month (m/m) as lower fuel prices offset core inflation and food prices.
Food inflation remained flat for the third consecutive month at 4.4% y/y in January 2026 underpinned by declines in “milk, other dairy products and eggs”, “oils and fats”, “fruits and nuts”, and vegetables, with further deceleration in cereal products.
This more than offset the faster acceleration in meat prices which came in at an eight-year high of 13.5% y/y, and an unseasonal monthly upswing of 1.6% m/m in January 2026.
Beef was the biggest driver in the meat complex with beef rump steak prices rising by 35% (+R56.96/kg) y/y at R219.93/kg, followed by beef chuck (+31.6% y/y; +R34.48/kg) at R143.65/kg.
In the case of pig meat cuts, pork chops rose by 22.8% y/y (+R20.84/kg) at R112.22/kg, while pork ribs and pork fillet advanced by 16.3% y/y (+R15.84/kg) at R113.13/kg and 13.1% (+R13.91/kg) at R119.79/kg, respectively.
The FMD-induced supply disruptions were the primary catalyst behind the sharp uptick in prices for these two meat categories.
We expect prices to remain elevated near term and then decelerate in the medium term, if efforts to reduce the outbreak incidences by more than 70 within 12 months in the high-risk provinces through systematic vaccination and preservation of the FMD free provinces, through buffer vaccination and strict movement controls succeed.
While the announcement of national vaccination is most welcome, it remains a long-term strategy to regain the FMD free status.
After a long wait, the benefit of lower grain prices over the past seven months has started to filter through to the consumer. Cereal inflation slowed to 0.6% y/y, further dropping by 0.9% m/m in January 2026. For example, our analysis of maize prices showed a massive decrease of 48% y/y (-R3,295/t) at an average of R3,512/t for January 2026.
Moreover, the combination of higher carryover stock from last year’s bumper harvest, the outlook for another decent crop due to the higher planted area and favourable rains, a stronger rand exchange rate, and the bulging global supply outlook, continue to weigh heavily on maize futures.
We expect meat prices to remain elevated near term given the current biosecurity lapses with twin outbreaks of FMD and the African Swine Fever.
Vegetable inflation remained in deflationary mode after falling by 3.2% y/y, reflecting the increased availability.
Fruits and nuts inflation decreased for the fourth consecutive month to -6.3% y/y and -0.1% m/m on volume pressure and the seasonal downturn in demand.
The continued moderation in consumer inflation, coupled with upside risks from volatile food prices, reinforces expectations for further rate cuts by the South African Reserve Bank.
