By Paul Makube, Senior Agricultural Economist, FNB Commercial
Despite elevated risks emanating from the ongoing Middle East war, animal diseases and inclement weather, South Africa’s agriculture outperformed other sectors of the economy with a strong rebound from a paltry 0.4% Q4 of 2025 to 3.9% quarter-on-quarter (q/q), seasonally adjusted, in Q1 of 2026, according to Statistics South Africa (Stats SA). Overall, South Africa’s economy grew by 0.5% q/q in Q1 of 2026 compared with a 0.4% rise in Q4 of 2025, marking its sixth quarterly expansion and the best level since Q2 2025.
The combination of strong economic activities in the field crops and horticulture products industries underpinned this growth momentum. Early indicators that agriculture growth may surprise on the upside include an 11% year-on-year (y/y) surge in exports to US$3.7 billion dominated by horticulture products as per the Trade Map data. On the back of best seasonal production conditions, output in the horticulture subsector expanded with increased fruit and vegetable availability for both the export and domestic markets. However, inclement weather which caused severe crops and infrastructure damage towards the end of Q2 of 2026 in the Eastern and Western Cape producing areas is likely to curtail export volumes going forward.
For field crops, the National Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) delivered a more optimistic harvest outlook after upgrading its major grain and oilseed estimates to a new record of 21.1 million tons, up 3% from the previous season. The CEC was more bullish on South Africa’s major staple, maize, whose overall estimate was up 2.5% year-on-year (y/y) and for the first time in the country’s history surpassed the 17-million-ton level at 17.06 million tons from 2.72 million hectares (up 4.6% y/y). At this level, total maize production would surpass the 5-, 10-, and 20-year long-term averages by 9.8%, 20.7%, and 35.9%, respectively if realised.
We saw a similar trend across the oilseed complex with the harvest estimate for soybeans at a fresh record of 2.91 million tons, up 4% y/y and way above long-term averages by over 20%. Sunflower is also expected to post a new record crop of 877,680 tons, up 25.4% y/y and 22.7%, 16.5%, and 25.8% above the 5-, 10-, and 20-year long-term averages, respectively.
While livestock is still grappling with animal diseases, mainly foot-and-mouth disease and African Swine Fever in cattle and pigs, respectively, the poultry industry which is the biggest in the animal products subsector continued to shine. Overall, the downbeat feed cost environment continues to keep the livestock market afloat. For example, a drill down into Stats SA’s producer price inflation (PPI) data showed a seven-month consecutive decline in the “starches and starch products, animal feeds” category to -8.7% y/y in April 2026, although fuel price pressures pushed it 5% m/m from -1.5% m/m previously. The PPI for poultry and dairy cattle feeds remained in deflationary mode for the tenth consecutive month at -10.6% and -5.8% y/y, respectively.
However, emerging downside risks include the reduction in export volumes from earlier expectations due floods and wind damage to fruit crops, the war-induced spike in input costs, and the El Niño weather outlook for summer crops in the new season towards the end of 2026. Nonetheless, a record crop currently on the fields and the potential reduction of the FMD due to the heightened vaccination pace should deliver an overall good year for agriculture.
