By Paul Makube, Senior Agricultural Economist, FNB Commercial
While South Africa’s headline inflation jumped from 3.1% in March to 4% year-on-year (y/y) in April 2026, food prices defied wider forecasts after dipping to a 13-month low of 2.8% y/y and only nudging 0.8% month-on-month (m/m). The sustained downside pressure on prices in the grain, fruit, and vegetables categories due to the robust domestic supplies more than offset higher fuel costs in the April food inflation outcomes. On the back of the Middle East war-induced pressure, average fuel prices lifted sharply by 18.2% m/m and 11.4% y/y thus raising concerns about potential food price spikes.
Food inflation decelerated faster by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month and for a third consecutive month underpinned by declines in the cereal products, fruits and nuts, and vegetables categories. Cereal products inflation posted a second consecutive decline to -1.2% y/y as the bumper summer crop from last year with an even larger crop currently in the lands readying for harvest continue to weigh heavily on grain prices. For example, average maize prices for April 2026 were still 37% and 30% below last year at R3,212/t and R3,334/t for the white and yellow subcategories, respectively. There was respite so far in May 2026 with average white and yellow prices almost 30% and 19% respectively lower relative to the same period in 2025 at R 3,322/t and R3,428/t. We observed a similar trend with wheat which is down 9% y/y at an average of R 5,868/t.
Meat decelerated faster by 2.2ppts and back below 10% at 9.4% y/y after weighing heavily on overall food inflation with double-digit growth in the past nine months to March 2026. The combination of a demand downturn and the foot-and-mouth disease-induced export ban which lifted domestic availabilities hastened the recent deceleration in meat inflation.
Meanwhile, vegetable inflation continued to trend in negative territory for the seventh consecutive month at -1.3% y/y which reflects the favourable production conditions despite pockets of disruptions in some areas due to inclement weather. Similarly, the fruits and nuts inflation remained in deflationary mode for the seventh consecutive month with an even larger decrease of 6.6% y/y.
A further erosion of disposable incomes on the back of higher fuel as well as elevated overall inflation and a potential rate hike dampens demand prospects. This is likely to limit further upside for raw food commodity prices in the medium term amid a solid domestic summer crop and horticulture supply outlook.
However, the elevate fuel price outlook remains a huge risk to the food inflation prospects as we head into the second half of 2026.
