Food security conditions across Africa remain fragile and under sustained pressure, even as recent harvests in some regions offer limited relief, according to the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA) February 2026 edition of the Food Security Monitor.
The report notes that while parts of Southern Africa are expecting near-average harvests and some West African markets are seeing improved supply, the broader continental picture is one of persistent vulnerability driven by climate shocks, conflict, and high food prices.
“East Africa’s food security situation is deteriorating sharply, driven by overlapping climatic shocks, conflict, and constrained livelihoods,” the report states.
In countries such as Ethiopia, Kenya and South Sudan, multiple stress factors are converging. Poor rainfall, depleted household food stocks and insecurity have pushed millions into crisis levels of hunger. In Kenya, for instance, a prolonged lean season and consecutive failed rains have left pastoral households facing acute shortages of water and pasture.
South Sudan remains among the hardest hit, with the report warning of worsening conditions. “South Sudan shows the most severe deterioration, with intensifying conflict driving widespread displacement, market disruption, and growing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes,” it notes.
Across West Africa, food insecurity is also worsening under the weight of insecurity and economic strain. The report highlights that conflict and restricted movement are undermining agricultural production and market access, particularly in the Sahel.
“West Africa’s food security situation in 2026 is deteriorating under the combined pressures of expanding conflict, restricted movement, depleted household stocks, and high market prices,” the report says.
Despite these pressures, there are pockets of improvement. In Southern Africa, favourable rainfall in several countries has boosted crop prospects, offering hope for seasonal recovery. Malawi, for example, is expected to see improved food access from April as harvests replenish household stocks.
“Southern Africa’s food security situation in early 2026 is mixed but fragile,” the report notes, adding that expected harvests could improve conditions, although flood impacts and localized shocks continue to threaten livelihoods.
However, even in regions with better production outlooks, structural challenges persist. High input costs—especially fertiliser—are adding pressure on farmers and food systems. Global market disruptions, including geopolitical tensions, are exacerbating the situation.
The report points to rising fertiliser and fuel costs linked to global supply chain disruptions, warning that these could undermine future production. “These dynamics pose acute risks for Africa, where many countries depend heavily on imported nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers,” it states.
At the same time, food prices remain volatile across regions. While some West African markets have recorded price declines due to improved supply, East and Southern Africa continue to experience mixed or rising prices, limiting household purchasing power.
Overall, the number of people facing insufficient food consumption remains alarmingly high. In East Africa alone, tens of millions are affected, with the report noting that “the five East African countries shown collectively account for 45.3 million people facing insufficient food consumption”.
The report underscores that short-term stability in some indicators masks deeper, long-term deterioration. Without sustained interventions, the gains from recent harvests may prove temporary.
As the continent navigates a complex mix of climate variability, conflict and economic pressures, the Food Security Monitor emphasizes the need for coordinated action to stabilise food systems and protect vulnerable populations.
“The monthly Food Security Monitor is a critical tool… to navigate challenges, prioritise interventions, and ultimately build a more food-secure future for all,” the report concludes.
