A new study from Jeonbuk National University has found that current national climate pledges may fall short of the goals set under the Paris Agreement, with global temperatures projected to rise to 2.48 °C by 2300 even if countries fully implement their existing commitments.
The research, conducted by Assistant Professor Taeyoung Jin of Jeonbuk National University in collaboration with scientists from Pusan National University, warns that without more ambitious action, climate-related economic damages could reach nearly US$65 trillion by 2200. The findings come as countries prepare to update their climate pledges ahead of the 2030 deadline.
International climate efforts reached a milestone when more than 190 countries adopted the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit global temperature rise to well below 2 °C, preferably to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. However, doubts remain about whether current national plans are sufficient to achieve those targets.
Against this backdrop, the Korean research team assessed the long-term impact of existing commitments. Their paper was made available online on November 17, 2025, and later published in Volume 174 of the journal Environmental Science & Policy on December 1, 2025.
“Even if every country keeps its current promises to cut carbon emissions, the world is still on track to warm by about 2.5 °C, which is higher than the internationally agreed 2 °C safety limit,” said Dr. Jin.
The team used the Regional Integrated Model of Climate and the Economy (RICE-2010), a widely applied tool that simulates interactions between economic activity, greenhouse gas emissions and climate change across different global regions. The model operates through a feedback loop: economic growth generates emissions, emissions drive climate change, and climate impacts in turn cause economic damage that can slow future growth.
Researchers incorporated real-world policy commitments into the model, including countries’ 2030 emission reduction targets and long-term net-zero goals. They then projected outcomes through the year 2300 under four scenarios: a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario with no emission cuts; a social optimum scenario focused on maximizing global welfare; a net-zero scenario based on current country pledges; and a pathway aligned with the 1.5 °C goal.
Under the BAU scenario, global temperatures could soar by as much as 7 °C by 2300. By contrast, the net-zero scenario—reflecting current commitments—limits warming to approximately 2.48 °C. While this represents significant progress compared to a no-action trajectory, it still exceeds the Paris Agreement’s 2 °C threshold.
To stay within the 2 °C limit, the study estimates that an additional reduction of about 5 gigatonnes of CO2-equivalent emissions will be required by 2030 beyond current pledges.
The economic implications are stark. Without more rigorous mitigation, total global climate-related damages could approach US$65 trillion by 2200. Under the net-zero scenario, those damages could be reduced to around US$19 trillion. A pathway aligned with the 1.5 °C target could lower projected losses further to roughly US$15 trillion.
The researchers caution that failing to strengthen action could lead to more frequent and severe heatwaves and floods, rising food and energy prices, and heightened economic instability. However, they emphasize that early and coordinated efforts can significantly reduce long-term risks.
“Our data reveal that today’s climate promises are important—but they are not enough. However, if countries act earlier and more decisively, the overall damage from climate change can be significantly reduced, even if it requires short-term economic adjustments,” Dr. Jin said.
The findings provide timely evidence for policymakers as they prepare to revise national climate pledges, underscoring the urgent need for deeper and faster emission cuts to keep global warming within internationally agreed limits.
