Kenya’s exports to hit US $10.2bn by 2030

Kenya’s exports are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 7.7% to cross US $10.2billion (Sh1.2 trillion) by 2030.

According to Standard Chartered’s new report, this will be driven by among others, output from the manufacturing sector, agriculture and food, textile and apparel and metal and minerals. Titled ‘Future of Trade 2030: Trends and Markets to Watch’, the report projects that global exports will grow by 70 per cent from $17.4 trillion (Sh198 trillion) to $29.7 (about Sh338.1trillion) over the next decade.

China, Kenya’s biggest import source, is expected to remain dominant with other markets being the US, India, UK, Japan, Germany, Thailand, Netherlands, Singapore, UAE, Vietnam, South Korea and Philippines.

Global trade

“The predicted doubling of global trade offers strong evidence that globalisation is still working, despite recent dislocation,” said Makabelo Malumane, head of transaction banking at Standard Chartered.

Kenya’s continued investment in the expansion of the manufacturing and the agricultural sector is seen as a catalyst to increased exports, supported by the strengthening of its regional trade relations. The country’s export are dominated by agricultural products such as tea, coffee, vegetables, and cut flowers. Pakistan which takes up 70% of Kenya’s tea exports, Uganda (manufacturers and agricultural products) and the US (apparel and textile), are identified as Kenya’s key trade corridors.

The agriculture sector will continue to be the mainstay of Kenya’s economy, the report notes, with exports expected to grow due to efforts to improve the sector’s efficiency and increase land productivity as well as growing regional demand. Strengthening trade relations as a part of its Vision 2030 plan, Kenya is looking to raise the share of its goods in the African regional market.