Global use of antimicrobials in livestock is projected to rise by nearly 30 percent by 2040 compared with 2019 levels, driven by increasing demand for animal-source foods and continued intensification of production systems, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has warned.
The projection is contained in a new scenario-based economic assessment titled The future of antimicrobial use in livestock – The economic cost of action or inaction, presented on Wednesday during the Fourth Session of the COAG Sub-Committee on Livestock at FAO headquarters in Rome.
The report underscores that antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is emerging as a major long-term threat to food security, livestock production, economic stability and human health. It calls for urgent policy realignment in the global livestock sector to prevent escalating costs that may become increasingly difficult to reverse.
“Antimicrobial resistance poses a significant long-term threat to food security, livestock production, economic welfare and human health, making it imperative to realign incentives in the global livestock sector before the costs of inaction become much harder to reverse,” the FAO noted in its assessment.
Rising costs of inaction
The FAO analysis highlights a widening gap between the short-term benefits of antimicrobial use and the long-term risks associated with AMR. While antimicrobial growth promoters (AGPs) continue to deliver productivity gains—particularly in resource-constrained settings—the report warns that these benefits are outweighed over time by systemic production losses linked to rising resistance.
In its modelling scenarios, cumulative livestock production losses under a high-AMR pathway could reach about $318 billion by 2040. By contrast, even a severe scenario involving the full phase-out of AGPs would result in significantly lower losses of about $53 billion.
“The costs of reducing unnecessary antimicrobial use are often immediate and concentrated, while the benefits of preserving antimicrobial effectiveness are long-term and widely shared,” said Thanawat Tiensin, FAO Assistant Director-General, Director of the Animal Production and Health Division, and Chief Veterinarian. “This is why antimicrobial effectiveness should be treated as a global public good…”
The FAO argues that antimicrobial effectiveness must be treated as a global public good, requiring coordinated international action and stronger alignment between farm-level incentives and broader societal benefits.
Policy shift and investment needs
To curb rising antimicrobial use and mitigate AMR risks, the report calls for integrated policy approaches that combine regulation with economic incentives. It recommends investments in veterinary services, surveillance systems, diagnostics, and preventive measures such as vaccination, improved biosecurity, and better husbandry practices.
It also suggests aligning trade and market systems with responsible antimicrobial use, alongside targeted incentives for adoption of alternatives. According to FAO estimates, at least $28.4 billion in transitional investment would be required to cover short-term costs associated with reform.
The report stresses that antimicrobial stewardship in livestock cannot be achieved through regulation or technical guidance alone. Instead, it calls for clearer global targets, sustainable financing mechanisms, and farm-level support systems to ensure adoption of best practices.
Economic tools such as usage caps, tradable standards, and fiscal measures may also be required, depending on national contexts.
Uneven transition across regions
While international guidelines increasingly advocate for the restriction and eventual phase-out of AGPs, the FAO notes that the transition will not be uniform across countries or production systems. AGPs remain particularly important in regions where farmers face high disease risks and limited access to veterinary care and affordable alternatives.
The report also highlights that future reductions in antimicrobial use will depend on improvements in productivity and animal health systems. However, it warns that phasing out AGPs may initially lead to production shocks before adaptation and recovery occur.
By contrast, the impacts of rising AMR are slower but accumulate over time—often delaying policy action despite the stronger long-term economic justification for intervention.
Regional trends and livestock growth
Global livestock production is projected to increase by about 23 percent by 2040, with poultry and milk production leading the expansion. This growth is expected to sustain demand for antimicrobials unless preventive systems are strengthened.
Regionally, Asia and the Pacific are projected to remain the largest users of antimicrobials in livestock, accounting for nearly 65 percent of global use by 2040. South America will follow with around 19 percent, while Africa’s share remains smaller but is expected to grow at one of the fastest rates globally.
FAO initiatives and global response
To support countries in managing the transition, FAO is advancing several initiatives, including RENOFARM—its 10-year programme aimed at reducing the need for antimicrobials in agriculture. It is also implementing the Farm 5Gs framework of good practices and the International FAO Antimicrobial Resistance Monitoring system (InFARM) to strengthen surveillance and evidence-based decision-making.
These efforts are intended to improve prevention, enhance monitoring systems, and make responsible antimicrobial use more feasible for farmers and governments.
The Sub-Committee on Livestock is also reviewing the draft Global Plan of Action for Sustainable Livestock Transformation, which promotes a whole value-chain approach—from production to markets—based on evidence and local conditions. The plan aims to ensure livestock systems remain productive while addressing rising global demand for meat, milk, and eggs in a more sustainable manner.
