Agriculture is the mainstay of Africa’s livelihoods and national economies – supporting more than 55% of the labor force. But its agricultural productivity growth has declined by 34% since 1961 due to climate change. This decline is the highest compared to what other regions of the world have experienced. Climate change is expected to make agricultural development in Africa more challenging. Weather patterns are becoming less favorable in many instances, increasing the volatility of crops and livestock yields. The frequency and/or severity of extreme events is increasing as temperatures are projected to continue rising, and rainfall patterns are expected to shift more than they have already. Overall, Africa is vulnerable because for many of its crops, it is at the edge of physical thresholds beyond which yields decline.
Moreover, a substantial portion of some countries’ economies (for example, one third of GDP for Ethiopia and one fifth of sub-Sahara Africa’s economic output) depends on agriculture. Finally, some aspects of adaptation may be challenging; for example, African farmers are generally more vulnerable to higher temperatures, fluctuations in rainfall, and variable yields than farmers in developed countries, who can usually more easily secure crop insurance, adjust what they plant, irrigate their fields, or apply crop protection chemicals and fertilizers.
Higher volatility in the yields of major African food crops is likely to result in higher price volatility for both farmers and consumers. African countries are already working to counteract growing volatility, but better and more localized planning and financial mobilization will be key. Modernizing Africa’s agriculture in the face of a changing climate will require significant investment.
Investments in irrigation can increase the likelihood that farmers maintain yields even when the weather is unfavorable. Better roads can help connect markets, which would help farmers sell their crops at fair prices. Improvements in the functioning of seed production systems would provide farmers with new varieties of seed that are suited to new conditions. Upgraded crop-storage facilities would prevent spoilage and food waste.
According to MarketsandMarkets The global market for agricultural global warming solutions is estimated to be valued at USD 0.86 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 1.28 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 8.2% during the forecast period. The market is poised for robust growth driven by rising climate change concerns, increasing government incentives, and rapid adoption of precision farming, renewable energy, and sustainable practices. Opportunities abound in climate-resilient crop development, carbon credit generation, and innovative technologies like AI-driven farm analytics, vertical farming, and regenerative agriculture, enabling stakeholders to enhance yields while reducing emissions and improving soil health.
Expanding markets in Asia Pacific, Latin America, and Africa offer untapped potential due to the growing food demand, supportive policies, and investment in sustainable infrastructure, making this sector a critical pillar in achieving global climate and food security goals. Emission reduction technologies hold a significant share in agriculture due to their ability to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while sustaining farm productivity.
These technologies include precision farming, which optimizes fertilizer and pesticide use, reducing nitrous oxide emissions. Tools such as AI-driven crop monitoring and automated machinery improve efficiency and reduce fuel use. Improved livestock feed additives and methane capture systems also lower emissions from animal farming.
For example, precision irrigation and integrated pest management reduce waste and energy consumption. Their adoption is driven by growing regulatory pressures, sustainability goals, and the rising demand for climate-smart farming practices that enhance both environmental and economic outcomes. The average rate of warming in Africa was +0.3 °C/decade during the 1991–2022 period, compared to +0.2 °C/decade between 1961 and 1990. This is slightly above the global average.
The warming has been most rapid in North Africa, which was gripped by extreme heat, fueling wildfires in Algeria and Tunisia in 2022. The Horn of Africa faced its worst drought in 40 years, with Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia particularly hard hit. The “triple-dip” La Niña was a substantial contributor. Five consecutive failed rainfall seasons reduced agricultural productivity and food security. In Somalia, almost 1.2 million people became internally displaced by the catastrophic impacts of drought on pastoral and farming livelihoods and hunger during the year. A further 512 000 internal displacements associated with drought were recorded in Ethiopia.
Many parts of the Sahel experienced significant flooding during the monsoon season, with Nigeria, Niger, Chad and the southern half of Sudan particularly affected. Africa, like other regions, has come to terms with the reality that climate change is already happening. Left untamed, the coming decades and years would easily be characterized by severe climate-induced pressure on the continent’s economies, livelihoods and nature. Given Africa’s high exposure, fragility and low adaptive capacity, the effects of climate change are expected to be felt more severely. People’s health, peace, prosperity, infrastructure, and other economic activities across many sectors in Africa are exposed to significant risks associated with climate change
