South Africa’s agriculture sector shined in 2025 with a strong GDP rebound of 17.4% year-on-year (y/y) after growing negatively for two consecutive years at 4.6% and 8.7% y/y in 2023 and 2024.
Bumper harvests, record exports, and favourable production conditions underpinned this massive feat in the agriculture sector’s growth despite the turbulent trading environment characterised by US “Liberation Day” tariffs and animal disease outbreaks.
The quarterly agriculture growth trend was however pedestrian with Q4 of 2025 decelerating to 0.4% quarter-on-quarter (q/q), seasonally adjusted (sa) from 1.4% in Q3 of 2025.
Livestock (animal products) was the biggest growth constraint due to the outbreak of the foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in cloven hoofed animals (cattle, pigs, sheep) which disrupted domestic and international trade due to movement restrictions and meat export bans, respectively.
The outbreak of the African Swine Fever (ASF) was a double whammy for pigs, causing losses for producers. This was inevitable considering that animal products accounted for the biggest share of 41% of total agriculture gross producer value (GPV) at R206.87 billion in 2025.
Cattle (beef and dairy), pigs, and sheep collectively accounted for 48% of the total animal product GPV in 2025. Nonetheless, the declaration of National Disaster and the adoption of a national vaccination policy will go a long way in stabilizing the industry in the medium term.
South Africa’s agriculture exports defied the odds with a 10% y/y growth to a new record of US$15.1 billion in 2025, with Q4 of 2025 lifting 7% y/y to US$3.4 billion according to the Trade Map data. A combination of big volumes and higher commodity prices underpinned this good export realisation.
Seasonal production conditions for the 2025/26 agriculture year appear excellent with a higher planted area under summer crops. This is likely to deliver another good agriculture harvest which bodes well for GDP outcomes in the medium term.
Nonetheless, the world faces another turbulent year following the outbreak of the war in the Middle East and this poses serious risks to the agriculture sector both from an import and export perspective. South Africa is a net importer of important agrochemicals such as fertilizer and crude oil for fuel, and the sector might face higher input costs ahead of the winter plantings and summer crop harvesting in two months’ time. Higher freight costs and the potential closure of the Middle East markets due to the war may stymie export performance if the situation does not normalise in the medium term.
Looking ahead, we have another bumper crop on the fields, the potential reduction of the FMD, and a good citrus harvest season.
