Confidence among grain and oilseed producers in South Africa has declined sharply over the past year, weighed down by rising input costs and persistently low commodity prices, according to the latest Grain Barometer survey released at the Grain SA Congress 2026.
The survey shows that only 40 per cent of producers believe they are more profitable compared to the previous season, a significant drop from 59 per cent recorded in mid-2025. The findings point to growing financial strain across the sector, with farmers grappling with shrinking margins.
The downturn is largely attributed to a combination of high production costs and subdued grain prices. Producers are facing increased expenses for inputs such as fuel, fertilizer, and seed, while global oversupply has pushed prices downward.
High domestic and international grain stocks have also limited export opportunities, further dampening earnings.
Short-term confidence is equally subdued with just 40 per cent of respondents saying they expect to be better off financially in the next year, down from 70 per cent in July 2025. This represents one of the steepest declines in sentiment recorded by the barometer, reflecting uncertainty about near-term recovery prospects.
Despite these challenges, the survey reveals a more balanced outlook over the longer term as about 50 per cent of producers expressed optimism that agriculture will remain profitable in the future. While this indicates some resilience in the sector, it still marks a decline from 71 per cent recorded the previous year.
Investor confidence, however, has taken a particularly strong hit with only 30 per cent of producers believe it is a good time to invest in major assets such as machinery, buildings, or land—down from 56 per cent in 2025. The drop highlights the reluctance among farmers to commit capital amid tight margins and uncertain returns.
The survey suggests that while many producers retain faith in the long-term viability of agriculture, immediate economic pressures are forcing them to adopt a more cautious approach. Reduced profitability is limiting their ability to reinvest in operations, potentially affecting productivity and growth in the sector.
Overall sentiment remains modestly positive at 43 per cent, but the downward trend across all indicators underscores the challenges facing grain producers. Industry stakeholders warn that without improvements in market conditions or cost relief, the pressure on farmers could persist into the coming seasons.
The Grain Barometer, an opinion poll tracking producer confidence, is widely regarded as a key indicator of the health of South Africa’s grain and oilseed industry.
