New research warns policymakers to weigh environmental gains against food security and profit losses
A team of researchers has developed an innovative decision-support framework designed to help land managers and policymakers navigate the complex trade-offs in agricultural planning—particularly in water-scarce regions such as Morocco’s semi-arid zones.
The tool brings together several modelling approaches, including IPCC nutrient loss assessments, the Rothamsted Soil Carbon Model, and Cornell University’s pesticide impact system, to assess the environmental and economic implications of different land-use scenarios.
Applied to irrigated farmland in Morocco, the model evaluated the government-backed push to expand olive cultivation and adopt efficient irrigation technologies. The research, co-designed with local farmers, revealed that while a shift to olive production may offer environmental benefits—including a 42% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and a 3% cut in water use—it comes at the cost of profitability and food calorie output. Notably, the expansion of olive groves was linked to higher pesticide-related environmental impacts.
Drip irrigation, another key policy focus, showed more uniformly positive results: a 23% boost in profitability, 13% savings in water use, and a 40% reduction in nitrogen leaching. However, the researchers caution that their analysis did not account for groundwater depletion—an important factor in long-term sustainability.
“We found that no single system offers a silver bullet,” said Imane El-Fartassi who led the research which was a joint project between Rothamsted, Cranfield University and Mohammed IV Polytechnic University, Morocco. “Each decision involves a trade-off between production, profit, and environmental impact. Our framework is designed to make those trade-offs visible and support more informed, adaptive policymaking.”
The findings highlight the power of data-driven tools to inform land-use strategies in climate-vulnerable regions—and the risks of unintended consequences when policies focus too narrowly on one set of outcomes.
